AI in Wargaming Survey

The application of Large-Language Models (LLMs) to several tasks throughout the wargaming lifecycle is receiving significant attention. However, up to this point a structured and academically rigorous method to measure the quality of LLM products for wargaming purposes is lacking. Herwin Meerveld, a serving Officer in the Royal Netherlands Air Force, has proposed such a method as part of his PhD research at Tilburg University. Part of this method is a survey of wargaming experts, asking them to score several products (both human-created and LLM-generated) on four variables that – according to wargaming literature – contribute to the effectiveness of wargames.

Herwin is requesting the assistance of the wargaming community to participate in his anonymous survey.

Please do help advance the state of art and science of wargaming by contributing 45 minutes of your expert time. The more respondents he gets, the more robust the findings of his analysis will be. So, feel free to share this post with fellow wargamers. He is offering respondents an early view of the pre-published results. If you are interested email him at: h.w.meerveld@tilburguniversity.edu.

The text URL for the survey is: https://tilburgss.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_e55wlcaGpWeWiB8

Wargaming Deception Working Group Invitation

The “Wargaming Deception” Working Group is now full.

Giovanni Domenico Tiepolo, “The Procession of the Trojan Horse into Troy”, https://www.nationalgallery.org.uk/paintings/NG3319

This is a collaborative effort by Connections US (which will have a session on Deception at their 2024 Wargaming Conference) and the Simulation & Wargaming Study Group of the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO).

The Working Group’s objective is to improve our understanding of how to use wargaming as a tool to research deception, and how to use wargaming to craft, test and implement deception plans across a range of domains such as warfare, law and order, criminal activity, diplomacy, terrorism etc. We will produce a resource document of our findings for dissemination on-line.

Members of the group may participate in any combination of three ways:

• Write a paper for inclusion in the final report. Your paper can be on any topic you choose so long as it loosely fits within the focus of the group.
• Comment and discuss other members’ papers and respond to comments on your own (if you write one).
• Engage in online discussions on any topic that surfaces within the focus area of the group.

Members retain unrestricted intellectual property rights of their contributions.

For an example of the kind of report we will produce see the “Wargaming the Far Future” Working Group Report on PAXsims.

The Group will collaborate on-line starting in February 2024. During various wargaming Conferences in 2024 members will present workshop results and collect feedback from the broader wargaming community. In the fall of 2024 the group will produce a final report and post it online for public dissemination as a resource for the community.

The group will use Google Groups and a shared Google Drive.

Respectfully,
Stephen Downes-Martin, Ph.D.
Research Fellow, US Naval War College
401-935-4808 (mobile)
stephen.downesmartin@gmail.com
downesmartin.com

We say goodbye to Peter Perla

It is with great sadness that we announce Peter Perla passed away suddenly on January 21st, 2024. On behalf of the wargaming community we send our heartfelt condolences to his wife JoAnn and children, Stephen and Sara.

Peter was a giant amongst wargamers, having affected thousands of lives through his work, mentoring and friendship. He not only influenced wargamers, he also influenced those who serve on the battlefield. As Matt Caffrey put it “since wargaming saves lives, Peter’s contributions saved a great many”.

He was a sought after consultant and speaker, internationally as well as nationally, for his insights and positive contributions. His refusal to accept nonsense was always tempered by his dry wit, innate kindness and willingness to teach and advise. His passing leaves a gap in the professional community which even his many mentees will find hard to fill.

There was a memorial service on Friday January 26 at The Holy Spirit Catholic Church, 5121 Woodland Way, Annandale VA 22003. This included visitation hours and a Mass followed by a private burial and a public reception at the church.

The Fairfax Memorial Funeral Home has a web page devoted to Peter with his Obituary and a Memorial Wall for people to post their memories of him (click here).

In lieu of flowers, Peter’s family suggests memorials be made to Duquesne University, as a scholarship fund is being established in his name. Donations may be sent to Duquesne University, Advancement Services, 305C Administration Building, Pittsburgh, PA 15282, ATTN: Peter Perla Scholarship Fund. Donations may also be made online at www.duq.edu/giving, in memory of Peter Perla.

AI and Wargaming talk Thursday 11 January 2024 1200 US ET

The video of the below presentation is now live on YouTube at: youtu.be/EHfzVF5PYWI

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You are invited to an online presentation on AI and wargaming:

Topic: Will the new advances in Artificial Intelligence transform Wargaming?
Speaker: Col. James Shiflett
Date: January 11
Time: 12:00am Eastern Time
Online link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87283497566?pwd=aW9WbS9HNDhTd1VpY201b1FMWXpEdz09
Sponsor: SISO Simulation & Wargaming Study Group
Format: Presentation and discussion

Speaker Details: COL James E. “Jimmy” Shiflett (USA, Retired) is currently vice president for program management at the Modeling, Simulation, and Training Division of Leidos Corporation in Orlando, Florida. He served as the director for FCS Training Systems in Orlando, Florida, from 2002 -2011, and has over 25 years of experience in the management, research and development of DoD simulation systems. During that time, he has focused on strategic policy, project advocacy, marketing, operational requirements, test and evaluation, fiscal management and successful program execution in both industry and government positions.

Help: System Dynamics Modeling and Wargaming info needed

This is a begging letter from me to the wargaming and M&S community. Please pause playing games for a moment and provide your expertise to further the field of wargaming, and at the same time help one of the next generation of wargamers in their PhD research.

You can do this with a few minutes of your time by providing your expertise via this online research survey into “the use of system dynamics modelling and wargaming to understand messy problems.”
(https://wpi.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0evbvgvetDWhym2)

I am especially looking to the senior members of the community (yes, that means YOU!) to give back some of the benefit you have received from your more experienced colleagues when you were new to the field.

Thanks to all, and have a great holiday season.

Call for Presentations — Connections US 2024 Wargaming Conference

The 2024 Connections US Wargaming Conference will be hosted by the Army War College, at the Army Heritage and Education Center in Carlisle, PA, June 25-27.

Our theme this year is Educational Wargaming: Play to Win, Play to Learn. We would especially welcome any presentations that touch on some aspect of this topic. However, relevance to the conference theme is in no way a requirement and we will fully consider any presentation relevant to other dimensions of the profession, especially analytic wargaming.

The Call for Presentations for the 2024 Connections Wargaming Conference is now open! Submit your proposals now!

“Littoral Commander: Indo-Pacific wargame” discussion with designer Sebastian Bae

On October 12, at 2:00pm Eastern US Time the SISO Simulation & Wargaming study group will host a special session with Sebastian Bae, who will provide a brief overview of the game, the design methodology, and its core mechanics. Then he will discuss how the wargame is currently being used both in the commercial and PME communities and its ongoing efforts for digitization.

Click here for the zoom link. Please join us.

Littoral Commander is an educational wargame exploring the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) in future peer adversary conflict. Sebastian J. Bae is a research analyst and senior game designer at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), he works in wargaming, emerging technologies, and the future of warfare. He serves as an adjunct assistant professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, is the faculty advisor to the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, the co-chair of the Military Operations Research Society Wargaming Community of Practice, and a former Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity. Previously, he served six years in the Marine Corps infantry, leaving as a sergeant. He deployed to Iraq in 2009.

NATO Wargaming Handbook

NATO has just released its “NATO Wargaming Handbook”

From the Preface:
“Scope: The NATO Wargaming Handbook applies to professional wargames across all domains at various levels: international strategic, national strategic, strategic, operational and tactical. It is not limited to military games; in fact, we hope that this handbook will dispel some misperceptions that tactical military wargaming is the only type of wargame. While there is some overlap between hobby wargaming, scenario-based discussions, red teaming, exercises, and simulation- based analysis, as well as a host of other disciplines, this handbook will only cover professional wargaming as applicable to NATO and its political and military interests.”

Generative AI being designed from the ground up for DoD Wargaming Applications

Following on from the PAXsims post “Williamson: Generative AI, wargaming, and PME” dated 24 July 2023, the Simulation & Wargaming Study Group announces a Special Session for Sept 14 (12:00noon Eastern US Time) lead by the folks from Pytho. We will hear about their generative AI platform for the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community to build more realistic and dynamic training events and plan them in a fraction of the time. Their platform allows users to quickly generate training scenarios, leverage vast knowledge bases, act as an agent advisor to commanders, generate injects, create complex products, and more.

Date/Time: Sept 14, 2023 at 12:00 Eastern US Time.

Zoom link:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87283497566?pwd=aW9WbS9HNDhTd1VpY201b1FMWXpEdz09

Pytho: A generative AI platform for the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community to build more realistic and dynamic training events and plan them in a fraction of the time. Pytho allows users to quickly generate training scenarios, leverage vast knowledge bases, act as an agent advisor to commanders, generate injects, create complex products, and more.

Presenters
Michael Mearn has 10+ years of experience in product and operations at Facebook and startups in San Francisco. He led Marine Corps human intelligence teams in Afghanistan. MBA from Harvard Business School.
Shah Hossain has 10+ years of experience building production-ready machine learning products at high-growth startups and enterprises like Amazon and Intel. He most recently led ML teams at Fanatics for four years.

Connections 2023 Wargaming Achievement Award goes to ED McGrady

The 2023 Award for Contributions to the Advancement of the Art, Science, and Application of Wargaming was given to ED McGrady by Peter Perla at the end of his Keynote speech at this year’s Annual Connections Wargaming Conference at the National Defense University:

“I am more than pleased to be able to introduce this year’s Connections Award honoree, my friend and colleague, Dr. ED McGrady. Ed, come on down!

I first got to know Ed when he volunteered to help run the CNA Shipbuilding game back in the early 90s. His enthusiasm for getting into the game and driving its stories was infectious. Over the years we have worked and played together innumerable times. In the Wargaming classes we present for MORS, I point to Ed as the archetype for the type of game designer I call the Artist. Ed is a great storyteller, but his stories are based on solid research and analysis. And they inevitably suck the players into his games.

Let me honor you with this award for your long and enduring contributions to professional Wargaming”

Peter Perla — Keynote at Connections 2023

For the full list of awardees by year see the Connections USA Wargaming Conference Proceedings website.

Connections US 2023 Wargaming Conference Presentation Materials now online

Presentation materials for Connections US 2023 Wargaming Conference are now available on the “Connections USA Wargaming Conference Proceedings” website.

Influence Wargaming Handbook

The UK MoD has just published its “Influence Wargaming Handbook“.

According to the UK MoD “This publication explains how wargaming can be used to explore influence and how influence effects might be better represented within wargames.”

Wargaming in general has very high level support within the UK Government. From Page iv of the Handbook:

Challenging traditional thinking through wargaming is critical to reform of our Services. I expect those commissioning wargames to play an active role in those games so that reform and challenge are seen to be part of everyday thinking rather than occurring in academic or scientific backrooms. Wargame outputs have been central to our decision-making under my leadership and everyone has a role to play in this cultural shift.

Rt Hon. Ben Wallace MP, Secretary of State for Defence

GAO Report “Defense Analysis: Additional Actions Could Enhance DOD’s Wargaming Efforts”

GAO-23-105351 was released on April 24, 2023 and is available online.

The GAO study team:

“identified steps DOD takes to ensure quality wargames. However, DOD stores wargame information in systems that don’t share data with others, which hinders collaboration. Also, none of the five military services have established standard education or qualifications for their wargamers.”

Furthermore, GAO states that

“Organizations within DOD and external providers—such as federally-funded research centers and contractors—provide wargames. But DOD hasn’t assessed the risks of relying on external providers.”

GAO made 10 recommendations for executive action (with which the DOD concurred). In addition to the Full Report (PDF), the report webpage includes the list of recommendations along with updates about what actions the DOD might take in response to each recommendation. This latter will be interesting to monitor!

Connections Online Wargaming Conference 2023 Presentations Now Available

The presentations delivered at the Connections Online Wargaming Conference 2023 held in April are now available courtesy of Armchair Dragoons on YouTube.

House China committee to war-game Taiwan invasion scenario

Axios reports that “The House China Select Committee this week will be war-gaming a scenario in which China invades Taiwan“

China committee chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.). Photo: Michael A. McCoy/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Why it matters: It’s a unique opportunity that will allow bipartisan members of Congress to walk through the potential challenges and identify the best legislative responses to deter and combat an invasion.

Driving the news: On Wednesday evening, bipartisan members of the House panel on China, led by Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), will step into the shoes of U.S. officials in a war-game simulation conducted by the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank focused on national security.

(click on links for full article)

Sophia Cai, Axios, Apr 18, 2023,
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/19/house-china-committee-taiwan-war-game