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No, non-democracies will not try to avoid a challenge at all costs. They ruthlessly confront and smash those challenges at massive cost. Examples include this week’s news from Iran, past Iranian handling of challenges, Tiananmen square, Czechoslovakia, Syria, and so on. Whether they are ultimately successful is up for debate, as is the question whether liberal democracy is the end-state of human society.
To Stephens first comment – Non-democracies will try to avoid a challenge to a status quo at all cost. The status quo that is exclusionary and unequal for Arab women has led them to act out in revolutionary ways that were unheard of prior to the Arab Uprisings from 2010 and further. The mobilization and collective action came in the form of protest, confrontation, and speaking out against injustices. Women sought to gain access to the decision-making process and power. For example, in Yemen, when women were told by their President that it was “un-Islamic for male and female protesters to march side by side, women took to the streets just to prove him wrong and challenge cultural traditional Islamic norms. Arab women in Egypt engaged in protests in Tahrir Square to fight for their status as women despite being fought and cleared out by army officers.
These uprisings affected geo-politics and yes, the outcomes have been disastrous and for now women may be worse of. It doesn’t mean that in the long run they won’t be able to break the status quo and have a seat at the table and forward their interests.
Quotes from:
http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1632/arab-feminism-in-the-arab-spring-discourses-on-solidarity-the-socio-cultural-revolution-and-the-political-revolution-in-egypt-tunisia-and-yemen
The exercise was a great idea. Take a position on the extreme edge (NOTE – NOT an “extreme position”) and see what can be done within the constraints. This fits the AI research into heuristics by Doug Lenat during the 80’s. His research indicated best results are gained NOT at the edge or some balanced central position, but at the points just inside and away from the edge. So past resesrch indicates that policies of unilateral disarmament etc should be leavened with small selected breaks from those policies.
I hope that future exercises explore the space just inside the boundary introduced by this one … versus a nuclear power dictatorship willing to use and threaten the use of nukes BUT whose policies are also leavened by small responses to diplomacy and other acts by their targets.
“Sometimes counter-intuitive strategy will work the best” does not contradict “Often counter-intuitive strategy will be disastrous”.
The question arises “to whom is it counter intuitive?”
I do not know the statistics of non-democracies giving in to opposition or demands from the female part of the population over geostrategic issues. Yes, Saudi Arabia has recently allowed women to drive … but Saudi engagement in Yemen continues.
This is absolutely the high point of the simulations – allowing new strategies to come to life. We need to face the reality that old strategies have outlived their purpose. To improve, we need to consider that not only the parameters, but also initial assumptions can be changed. After all, sometimes counter-intuitive strategy will work the best.