GPPI: Gaming the Political Economy of Conflict

The Global Public Policy Institute has issued a new report on gaming the political economy conflict.

How do economic factors shape the dynamics of violent crises? To launch and sustain their fighting, conflict actors rely on financial resources and access to physical supplies; economic motives may themselves also be an important driver of violence. There is no lack of academic research describing these dynamics, nor of practice-oriented frameworks for grasping how they play out in a given conflict context. Yet there remains a very large step between better contextual understandings and being able to anticipate the concrete consequences of an external intervention. 

This is a significant challenge for policymakers as they consider intervening in the political economy of a crisis setting. They have a range of interventions at their disposal, from sanctions regimes to fostering peace-positive investments. But the complexity of conflicts means it is crucial to think through the possible impacts – and unintended consequences – of any potential intervention. This project explored how simulation games can serve as a valuable tool for conducting forward-looking analysis in such contexts. It positioned simulation games at the intersection of political economy analysis and serious games methodologies. 

The project’s final publication offers a practical toolbox for developing simulation games tailored to analyzing political economy interventions in stabilization settings, including a step-by-step process and a menu of potential design choices. While these apply to a broad range of settings and themes, the discussion also draws on the project team’s experiences in designing a game on conflict dynamics in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The report is an extremely useful contribution to the literature on confict simulation. You will find both a summary of their work and a link to the full (49pp) report at the link above.

Wargamer Job at NDU

NDU has opened a job for a “Senior Wargaming Fellow” on USA Jobs. If you are a US citizen, have enough experience to be considered “senior,” and either have the qualifications, or are willing to ignore the rather odd set of qualifications (AI, online game design), then you might want to consider applying. I personally think CASL is a good group, and NDU would not be a bad place to work. If you are interested in advancing your career, I’d check it out. https://www.usajobs.gov/job/787587600

Registration for Connections US 2024 now open

An update from Timothy Wilkie and the Connections US team.

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On behalf of conference founder and co-chair Matt Caffrey and the rest of the Connections organizing team, I am pleased to announce that registration for Connections 2024 is now open!  This year’s conference will be hosted by the U.S. Army War College at the Army Heritage and Education Center in Carlisle, PA, June 25-27.  This conference is held at the unclassified level and is open to all members of the professional wargaming community, from military to government to academic to commercial hobbyist to contractor to private sector.  We especially welcome our international participants.

The day before the conference begins, the Army War College will be hosting a series of classified wargame briefings on Carlisle Barracks.  The classified event is open to all U.S. citizens with a SECRET clearance.  The form linked below will register you for the unclassified conference June 25-27, and will collect your contact information to receive additional information about the classified session on June 24 if you indicate your interest.

Please follow the link below to the registration form:
https://forms.gle/LvxNjdW8SCSxC4CK9

The above link is to a Google Form, which sometimes are difficult to access from some military networks.  If you have problems viewing or completing the form at work, please try from a personal device at home.

More information is available at the Connections website:
https://connections-wargaming.com/registration-and-logistics/

We have an exceptional program lined up this year and will be posting the conference agenda to the website soon.  We are pleased to announce our two keynote speakers: John Nagl and Tom Mouat.  The rest of the program consists of panels, seminars, game demos and playtests, small-group workshops, and more!

Since 1993, the Connections conference has brought together practitioners with a professional interest in wargaming from all elements of the wargaming field.  Please help us expand our reach even further by passing this registration information along to those you think might be interested.

Connections UK 2024

An update from Graham Longley-Brown and the Connections UK team.

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The Connections UK 2024 conference for wargaming professionals will take place Tuesday 10 to Thursday 12 September 2024 at Brunel University in Uxbridge, just to the west of London and five miles from Heathrow airport. Tickets will go live in mid-June and are likely to be in high demand. We’ll send more content details presently, but the main themes and sessions are outlined below.

The Connections UK mission remains ‘to advance and preserve the art, science and application of wargaming’. The two main themes this year are: engaging academia; and helping to improve methods, models and tools that contribute to better wargaming.

Connections UK 2024 will feature:

• An Introduction to Wargaming course on Day 1.
• A half-day icebreaker on the morning of Day 1.
• A stream on wargaming in academia.
• Practitioner-level workshops and seminars to improve methods, models and tools that contribute to better wargaming.
• A stream on wargaming deterrence, escalation and de-escalation.
• A stream on wargaming deception.
• A stream on gaming social complexity, which will include the use of artificial intelligence to support wargaming.
• Games Fairs on the afternoons of Days 2 and 3. See note below regarding entries.
• The inaugural Peter Perla Commemorative talk, featuring Phil Sabin and David Banks talking respectively to the growth and future of wargaming.
• Social gaming on the evenings of Days 1 and 2.
• Semi-organised networking events during the evening social gaming.
• Sessions designed to help the next generation of wargamers.
• Hands-on workshops exploring topics such as microgames, a ‘game jam’ and a designers’ clinic.
• And lots more!

Games Fairs entries. We are introducing criteria for showing a game. Please click the link at https://www.professionalwargaming.co.uk/GamesFair.html for these criteria and entry submission form.

Connections UK follows the week after the Wargaming in NATO (WIN) conference 2 – 4 September at the University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, Germany.

Connections (US) is 25 – 27 June at the Army Heritage and Education Center (AHEC) in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

We look forward to seeing you in September!

All that’s left is the grading…

Today was the last day of my conflict simulation course at McGill, and as is POLI 452 tradition everyone’s game was on display before being submitted. Here’s a look at what I’ll be playing (and grading) over the next few weeks.

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Black October explores strategic competition and conflict between Israel and Iran (and its allies/proxies). The game tracks political capital, resources, military capabilities, and US and global opinion. Cards are used either to play specific actions or an action chosen from a menu. The yellow cups are used to hide Iranian nuclear enrichment.

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Breacher Up! examines platoon-level suburban operations. Fog of war is provided through blocks, dummy counters, and (uncleared) room tokens. They certainly won the prize for the largest map this year!

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Men of Honor is a game about Sicilian mafia during the Mussolini era. Players (families) compete to control key industries during a time when the fascist state was clamping down on their activities. They can betray each other, even cooperate with the regime at times—but breaking Omertà (the mafia code of silence and code of honor) in this way can have severe consequences.

The meeples used to track honor, influence, and notoriety were a real find.

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The Opium Wars is a two player game about Anglo-Chinese conflict in the mid-19th century. Britain wants to sell opium into China, to offset China’s trade surplus (in tea, china, and other products). The Qing Dynasty China isn’t so keen. However, China opium seizures or port closures may lead the British to use military force. Can China avoid “the century of humiliation”?

Take particular note of the hand-crafted opium bales, the traditional silver ingots, and the jars of tea.

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Polymer Planet is a semicooperative game about plastic pollution. Players assume the role of Carol (CEO of a fashion company), Leo (an oil industry lobbyist), Patrick (a politician), Naomi (an environmental NGO activist), and Carla (the consumer). Each pursues certain goals, and their actions can various contribute to pollution (tracked with coloured bottle caps that accumulate in a central container) or help alleviate it. Can they find a solution that leaves everyone satisfied and saves the planet?

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Red Tide explores a Chinese (PRC) invasion of Taiwan, focusing on how Taiwan were to fare were it to receive no support from allies. Chinese sealift capacity, the seizure of ports, and the damage suffered by those ports has a fundamental effect on how long Taiwan can hold out before defeat.

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Wildfire! is a largely cooperative about wildfire management in Canada. The focus on the federal government, with players assuming the role of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), Public Safety Canada, or the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. You’ll noticed the map coded for fire risk and environment, and the 3D printed stackable fires to indicate severity.

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270! is a two player game about US presidential election campaigns. Players choose various campaign actions (targetable by state), including campaign visits, ad buys, social media, and fundraising. They also respond to current issues, and there’s a presidential debate minigame too. All actions are entered into a an Excel spreadsheet—hence all the laptops—which then determines their impact and updates a PowerPoint map and bar graph.

Wargaming the effects of a Trump presidency on NATO

This article was written for PAXsims by Finley Grimble. He is a former wargamer and strategy advisor to the UK Government having worked at the Cabinet Office, Ministry of Defence and Foreign Office. He particularly focused on NATO defence and foreign policy, Russia-Ukraine strategy, China-Taiwan policy, the US-UK security relationship, and wargames for the 4* National Security Council Officials (highest officials decision-making body in UK). He can be contacted via email  or LinkedIn.

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Donald Trump threatened to withdraw from NATO during his first term based on the idea that the US should not be defending Europe, whilst the Europeans under-invest in their own defence by spending less than the NATO agreed 2%. He has continued to do so in the run up to the 2024 elections. With specialists in defence, intelligence, foreign and security policy hailing from several NATO countries, we conducted a wargame to explore the following questions: 

• How might a Trump administration go about leaving NATO and/or getting all Allies to pay 2% GDP on defence?
• What are the immediate consequences of the United States leaving Euro-Atlantic security to Europe?
• What are the broader global consequences for the United States?

Wargame Format

The wargame commenced on a successful Trump Inauguration Day: January 1, 2025, and running for two years into the presidency. All 32 NATO members, Ukraine, and Russia were represented by participants. These countries with ‘dedicated representation’ were given time to: 

1. Develop a strategy.
2. Negotiate with allies to cohere strategy.
3. Negotiate with adversarial countries.
4. Take a series of military, diplomatic, economic, and intelligence actions for a turn that represented two months. 
5. Any military actions were then carried out using an operational wargame map with bounded adjudication rules. This ran as a minor facet of the wider geo-political wargame to establish correlation of forces and battlefield situations.

Once these phases had occurred, the non-military actions were freely adjudicated by a ‘wargame control team’, then the next turn would begin with a new set of starting conditions based on the outcomes of the previous intertwining actions.

Within the wargame control team adjudicating the turn outcomes, China, Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran were represented through injects. They were not given a dedicated representative to play a full role in the wargame. We chose to represent these key non-Euro-Atlantic countries as to: 

• Gain their perceptions on Trump’s NATO policy. 
• Prevent Euro-Atlantic Security developing in an unrealistic vacuum.

Adjudication and representation of all countries was performed by specialists in defence, intelligence, foreign and security policy to provide realistic strategies, policies, actions and perceptions by all countries represented.

Key Takeaways 

A turn-by-turn report on how the game developed can be found in the pdf attached to the end of article. Key takeaways from the wargame were:

• The US fully exiting NATO is not realistic given the National Defense Authorization Act for the fiscal year 2024 is in place – The legislation states “The President shall not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty, done at Washington, DC, April 4, 1949, except by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds of the Senators present concur or pursuant to an Act of Congress.” Achieving this in the senate was considered highly unlikely by participants. 
• Despite Trump taking tangible steps to reduce the US commitment to defending Europe, Russia’s demands in Ukraine prevent it from realistically attacking a NATO Member.
• If the US reduces its role in European security, it will likely damage investors’ sentiment throughout the continent, especially in Eastern Europe, thus damaging these state’s economies.
• A US reduction in support to Ukraine makes the task of resisting Russia almost unfeasible, given Europe’s inability to adequately support Ukraine with what it needs.
• A US policy of frustrating NATO has the potential to cause the alliance to collapse, with EU as a candidate for eventually replacing NATO’s ultimate function – defending Europe from Russia.
• Trump’s proposed policies of punishment towards NATO will likely force Allies to spend more.

wargaming-a-trump-presidencyDownload

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation (April 2024)

The latest issue of the Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation 21, 2 (April 2024) is now available (paywalled).

Editorial

• A look back at the past 44 years of live virtual and constructive (LVC) simulation and lessons for cyberspace LVC 
  • Michael G. Lilienthal

Methodology

• Wargaming the use of intermediate force capabilities in the gray zone 
  • Kyle D Christensen and Peter Dobias
• Fog, friction, and control in organized conflict: punctuated transitions to instability 
  • Rodrick Wallace
• Supporting shipboard helicopter flight testing with simulation and metrics for predicting pilot workload
  • Perry Comeau, Alanna Wall, Eric Thornhill, Sean McTavish, and Richard Lee
• An experimental intervention to investigate user perceptions of computer versus manual board wargame
  • Jeremy Smith, Trevor Ringrose, and Stephen Barker

Applications

• Detection and defense of cyberattacks on the machine learning control of robotic systems 
  • George W Clark, Jr, Todd R Andel, J Todd McDonald, Tom Johnsten, and Tom Thomas
• Verification, validation, and accreditation for models and simulations in the Australian defence context: a review 
  • Kerryn R Owen and Ripon K Chakrabortty
• Simulation analysis of applicant scheduling and processing alternatives at a military entrance processing station 
  • Phillip M LaCasse, Lance E Champagne, and Jonathan M Escamilla

Technology

• Simulation of the attack helicopter Mil Mi-24 conducting anti-surface air operations in support of a battalion task group 
  • Zbyšek Korecki, Tomas Hoika, Jiří Ulvr, Miroslav Janošek, and Matuš Grega

We Are Coming, Nineveh nominated for Charles S. Roberts Awards

We Are Coming, Nineveh! (Nuts! Publishing)has been nominated for a Charles S. Roberts Award for Excellence in Conflict Simulation, in several categories: Best Modern Game, Best Tactical Game, and Game of the Year. In addition—and I’m especially excited about this—Harrison Brewer and Juliette Le Ménahèze have been nominated for a Chad Jensen Memorial Breakthrough Designer Award.

Nineveh was first designed by Julliette and Harrison for my conflict simulation course. Neither had designed a wargame before. I don’t think Juliette had ever played one before either, but she was writing her Honours thesis on Iraqi security force operations against Daesh. Harrison had played some wargames and was interested in urban warfare. While Brian Train and I later came on board later to help them develop a solo module and refine the project for eventual publishing, the game design is very much theirs: the movement and combat systems, the capability and event card system, and the victory metrics.

The winner of each Charles Adams Award is decided by public ballot, which is now open at  https://forms.gle/SCPjWvDp7abnc9Ty5. Voting closes at midnight (ET) on May 13. There are lots of great games to vote for in many categories.

Assises Françaises d’Étude du Wargaming (29-30 April)

Institut d’études de stratégie et de défense (IESD) will be holding the first ever Assises Françaises d’Étude du Wargaming (AFEW) on 29-30 April 2024, at the University Jean Moulin Lyon 3.

Le regain d’intérêt pour l’objet et sa méthode est majeur en France : l’objectif de cette rencontre est de lancer une dynamique de réflexion collective sur le wargaming, afin de poser les bases collaboratives d’un réseau d’échanges, et favoriser la connaissance des travaux de chacun des acteurs de cette sphère de réflexion, de connaissance et d’action.L’événement est construit sur la base d’une structure double :

Avec des sessions de conférences permettant d’aborder tour à tour l’objet du wargaming, via sa méthodologie, ses processus de création, ses acteurs structurants (quel lien entre concepteurs et end-users, militaires et civils ?) ainsi que ses usages diversifiés, en mettant l’ensemble de ces enjeux en perspective de manière historique et critique.

Les fin d’après-midis seront pour leurs parts consacrées à la pratique, au travers de la présentation de wargames professionnels par leurs créateurs, l’occasion d’échanger sur les objectifs, processus de création et cadres d’emploi.

Full details and a registration link can be found here.

PPCLI QUICK Jr

At his Ludic Futurism blog, Brian train recently discussed the adaptation he has made to his Quick Urban Integrated Combat Kriegsspiel (QUICK) system for the Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry, to cover action by a single battle group (rather than a division, as in the original version of the wargame).

On X, LCOL Cole Petersen adds some additional detail on how it is working out (read the full thread).

Bn officers conducted urban ops planning and wargame PD today using a system (QUICK) designed by Brian Train and adapted for the Bn/Bde level. We had five games going at once so everyone was involved. 1/6https://t.co/YCgTKOWsZQ

— Cole Petersen (@ColeFPetersen) March 22, 2024

US Army Mad Scientist Initiative calling all wargamers

Originally posted to X.

Cultural property protection and wargaming

Back in October, Blue Shield International, Netherlands 1 CMI Command, and the CIMIC Centre Of Excellence hosted a workshop on how to script cultural property protection into wargames and exercises. The report of that workshop is now available.

bsi-1-cmi-cmd-cpp-scripting-workshop-report-sept-2023Download

UK MoD Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub

The UK Ministry of Defence has recently opened its new Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub at Southwick Park.

Strategic Command’s Deputy Commander, Lieutenant General Tom Copinger-Symes, has formally opened the Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub. The facility, developed in partnership with the Defence Science Technology Laboratory (Dstl), will be the centre for experimentation and wargaming in Defence.

The hub will help Defence respond to the evolving global threats we face. The need to constantly learn and adapt at pace has never been more important.
Attended by the Director Joint Warfare, Rear Admiral Andrew Betton, and distinguished guests from across Defence, academia, and industry, the opening ceremony reinforced the collaborative nature of the Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub.
The hub’s wargaming capabilities offer a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between military doctrine, technological innovation, and academic expertise. Through simulated scenarios and tabletop exercises, personnel can explore alternative futures, assess the effectiveness of different courses of action, and anticipate emerging threats – thereby enhancing preparedness and resilience in an increasingly complex security environment. 

In his opening address, Lieutenant General Tom Copinger-Symes emphasised the facility’s roles as a centre for research, experimentation, and strategic thinking.

He said:

“The hub will be the epicentre for strategic brilliance and tactical innovation, and will enable evidence-based decisions to be made at an increased pace.
By fostering a culture of experimentation, collaboration, and forward thinking, it seeks to ensure that Defence organisations remain agile, adaptive, and responsive to evolving threats and opportunities.
The establishment of the Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub is not just the opening of a physical facility, but the start of a new era in Defence strategy and innovation. With its focus on experimentation, collaboration, and foresight, the facility embodies the culture of innovation essential for safeguarding national security in an uncertain world.”

Speaking about the launch, Lieutenant Colonel Tom Ellen, Chief of Staff Defence Experimentation and Wargaming Hub said: “The launch marks not the culmination, but the commencement of a journey towards shaping the future of Defence and engendering a culture of experimentation, wargaming and development across Defence.”

The BBC reported on the opening of the new hub.

Ben Moores also reported on the opening on X:

We formally opened StratComs Southwick Park Wargaming center today. A thread on the past, present and future of professional wargaming. pic.twitter.com/acMKEkiy5e

— ben moores (@benmoores2) March 21, 2024

Sabin: Counter Air

Counter Air is a two player, low complexity print-and-play wargame designed by Phil Sabin depicting an aerial offensive against an opposing air base. Everything you need to play has recently been posted to Fight Club International (registration required).

MORS 2024 Wargaming Workshop

Wargaming in the Eastern Pacific

The Military Operations Research Society (MORS) once again held its annual wargaming workshop in the Pacific theater, this time in San Diego, California. Here is the short version of the conference notes. A longer form will appear in the next Phalanx. (Disclaimer, I was both the conference chair and wrote this summary.)

From 27 February to 1 March 2024 professional game designers and interested academics met in San Diego, California at the downtown Kimpton Alma hotel to discuss professional gaming, and how it applies to the eastern Pacific area of interest.   Focusing on the eastern Pacific meant that we included missions such as homeland security and homeland defense.  The conference covered a wide range of topics from theory of professional games to how the profession relates to the hobby industry.  Like its predecessor last year in Hawaii, the small conference produced a setting where a lot of in-depth conversations could happen.  The schedule was structured to facilitate this, with the conference moving between learning, discussing, and doing (playing) professional games.  The three-day unclassified conference was followed by a day of classified sessions hosted by NIWC Pacific.

The highlight of the conference was a panel on “Use of Games and Fleet Problems in the Navy’s Campaign of Learning” featuring VADM Michael Boyle, Commander Third Fleet, Dr. Ann Rondeau, (VADM, Ret.), President of the Naval Postgraduate School, and Capt. Michael O’Hara, Chair, War Gaming Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College.  The focus of the panel was on building a campaign of learning similar to what happened during the interwar years.  Third Fleet discussed his work to operationalize his command for operations in the Pacific.  This discussion was of keen interest to those in the audience tasked with developing wargames for Pacific scenarios.  Dr. Rondeau asked, “how well do we know our systems?” and suggested that complexity has to become practice as we think about future warfighting.  This includes building “surprise” into our models and analysis.  This led to a discussion of how games provide the ability to have an immersive learning experience, which builds the “habit of mind” necessary to adapt to surprising and complex situations.

Other panels discussed how we game in homeland security, including issues surrounding the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP) and the National Exercise Program.  One advantage of being in the Los Angeles area was that we had access to several key hobby wargame designers, who talked on a panel devoted to how hobby games impact professional games.  Another panel brought up the interesting, controversial, and always exciting topic of classification in games, how it impacts game design and play, and how it’s represented in game designs. 

The conference also had many and varied presentations.  One of which was a talk on “We don’t game grief” by RAND analyst Mr. Sale Lilly who talked about how there are many factors that influence warfighting beyond either doctrine or technology.  Sometimes we may not want to believe these factors have the power to change operations, but if you experience them on the ground, you find out they do.  In addition to presentations, we had participation games that included PHOTON LEVER a Group-W/DTRA game looking at nuclear conflict, cyber games on hacking commercial shipping operations, games for training homeland security communications responders, and games built by the CIA.