PAXsims is pleased to present a selection of recently-published items on conflict simulation and serious gaming.
Some of these may not address conflict, peacebuilding, or development issues at all, but have been included because of the broader perspective they offer on games-based education or analysis. Others might address “gaming-adjacent” issues such as group dynamics and decision-making, assessment, forecasting, or related topics. Items previously featured on PAXsims are not included. However, if you have published something recently and we haven’t yet included it, let us know.
Articles may be gated/paywalled and not accessible without subscription access to the publication in which they appear.
Paulo Vicente dos Santos Alves, Fundação Dom Cabral, “Earth Under Siege: The Game of Sustainability,” Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Proceedings (2024).
This article introduces a solitaire game for the classroom or personal use based on an adaptation of the States of Siege game engine used in many commercial wargames to model the global sustainability challenge of the 21st century.
The Earth systems are modeled by five variables (deforestation, ocean pollution, greenhouse gases, water scarcity, and soil degradation). These variables are impacted along the game due to population growth and consumption level growth. These impacts are countered by action units representing NGOs, regulation, R&D (technology), space resources (space), and governance (diplomacy).
The goal of the game is to limit the damage of the impacts so that the Earth systems don’t enter a collapse. Civilization, as we know it, would come to an end, leading to a new dark age of hundreds or perhaps thousands of years. Instead, the aim is to achieve a new golden age of sustainable growth with a more manageable population level, new technologies, space resources, and prosperous global coordination.
It was designed for a two-hour session in a classroom or at home. Although designed as a solitaire game, it can be played in small groups of up to three students in a classroom.
The model simulates the challenges of increasing the population level during the 21st century, up to a forecasted 11 billion people, while increasing consumption levels to eradicate poverty and famine. This will generate several negative impacts on Earth systems with environmental and social consequences, limiting consumption growth itself. The way to mitigate those impacts and allow for a sustainable level of consumption is through the development of new technologies, obtaining access to space resources, and improving global governance through diplomacy.
The model is simple enough to give players a better view of the contradictions and solutions of this sustainability dilemma without entering too many calculations and statistics.
Thomas Ambrosio, “Boardgaming after the fall of Kabul: player and designer (re)engagement with A Distant Plain,” Rethinking History, first published online 28 Apr 2024
During summer 2021, the world watched the swift and, for some, surprising collapse of Afghanistan’s government. However, a Taliban victory was always a possibility for players of ADistant Plain (ADP), a boardgame about insurgency and counterinsurgency in post-9/11 Afghanistan. These events inspired many ADP players, and its designers, to (re)engage with the game, thus providing scholars with a unique opportunity to investigate in real time how historical practice occurs within the popular culture space. Utilizing primary sources, this article demonstrates that contemporary history games – those which depict current events or open-ended, unresolved periods, rather than ones designed to model what is seen as ‘settled’ history – are uniquely subject to external, out-of-game interventions which may prompt reevaluations of their assumptions and models, since players and designers are repeatedly challenged by changing circumstances to integrate new data into how they perceive and consume the historical representations found therein. These games are therefore exceptionally suited to engendering genuine and ongoing historical practice, through the use of evidence, argumentation and debate, retrospective reassessments, and counterfactual analysis. The broader discipline will greatly benefit from taking a more inclusive view of popular history by paying greater attention to historical games of this type.
Fatokun Faith Boluwatife, Zalizah Awang Long, Suraya Hamid, Fatokun Johnson, and Azah Norman, “Cybersecurity Knowledge Deterioration and the role of Gamification Intervention,” Journal of Advanced Research in Applied Sciences and Engineering Technology 43, 1 (2025).
Cybersecurity is becoming an overly critical issue in contemporary times. Cyberspace safety is declining, covering all sphere of humanity. Deterioration in cybersecurity knowledge and awareness has resulted to more cybercrime victimisation. The more novel security systems are being developed, the higher the innovativeness of cybercriminals techniques to attack cyber-users. Thus, investigating the stance of cybersecurity knowledge among general IT (Information Technology) users, especially in the 21st century is paramount. This paper designed a cybersecurity quiz based on adaptations from literature and past cybersecurity quizzes and conducted investigations to test the knowledge of random cyber-users. Results from investigations are instructive, thus serving as a propelling motivation to develop a cybersecurity game. Findings reveal that most cyber-users lack knowledge about network security. Also, respondents lacked knowledge on social engineering. Thus, it is important for upcoming innovations to consider aspects of network security, social engineering when designing cybersecurity gamification approaches. Gamification has been used as teaching aids for diverse learning fields, however its application in cybersecurity is still understudied. The result of this quiz is intended to further boost the development of a cybersecurity game, which can be age centric, thus developing suitable cybersecurity games for specific user groups. Interestingly, though females were not regular game players, however they were highly interested in playing a cybersecurity game, as majority of cyber-users (males inclusive), believed that a cybersecurity knowledge gamification approach can help enhance their cybersecurity knowledge and awareness. Conclusively, it is obvious that both the young and old still lack basic cybersecurity knowledge, thereby making them easy prey for cyberattacks. Gamification if applied properly into cybersecurity, could be an interactive learning platform that is both enjoyable, produces a high spirit of learning as well as help serve as a strong awareness tool that can boost cybersecurity user’s knowledge.
Nick Bradbeer and David Manley, “Naval Wargaming as a Requirements Elucidation Tool for Warship Design Teams,” Proceedings of 15th International Marine Design Conference (IMDC-2024) June 2024.
This paper discusses some of the challenges of setting the requirements for a future warship program and how manual naval wargaming might be employed to make the process more efficient and structured. It goes on to describe some case studies where UCL’s wargame “A Balanced Fleet” was applied to requirements- phase problems, in particular the ASW Barrier wargame conducted for the NATO Specialist Team on Naval Ship Systems Engineering. The paper concludes that wargaming is a useful tool in the requirements phase, in particular for helping to direct subsequent and more detailed operations analysis work.
Adonisz Dimitriu, Tamás V. Michaletzky, Viktor Remeli, and Viktor R. Tihanyi, “A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Military Simulations in Command: Modern Operations,” IEEE Access preprint, 2024.
This paper presents a Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework for Command: Modern Operations (CMO), an advanced Real Time Strategy (RTS) game that simulates military operations. CMO challenges players to navigate tactical, operational, and strategic decision-making, involving the management of multiple units, effective resource allocation, and concurrent action assignment. The primary objective of this research is automating and enhancing military decision-making, utilizing the capabilities of RL. To achieve this goal, a parameterized Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a unique architecture has been developed, specifically designed to address the unique challenges presented by CMO. By adapting and extending methodologies from achievements in the domain, such as AlphaStar and OpenAI Five, the agent showcases the potential of RL in military simulations. Our model can handle a wide range of scenarios presented in CMO, marking a significant step towards the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) with military studies and practices. This research establishes the groundwork for future explorations in applying AI to defense and strategic analysis.
Peter Dobias, “Renormalization theory and wargaming: multi-layered wargames,” Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, first published 8 January 2024.
Generally speaking, wargames are tools for exploring human decision-making in an environment with incomplete and imperfect information. They can provide important insights into the complexity of military operations or can be used to generate novel ideas. However, if an analyst desired to conduct analyses spanning multiple warfare levels, the only feasible approach would be to select the largest domain and the highest resolution to accommodate even the smallest scales involved. This paper develops a theoretical framework based on the renormalization theory for a multi-layered approach to wargaming. This approach would enable representing variety of warfare scales within a single wargame, while avoiding the overhead that would have arisen from trying to represent desired scenarios at the highest required temporary and spatial scales. The proposal of a conceptual framework for multi-scale wargaming is demonstrated on a simplest possible example of hybrid wargames used in support of NATO concept development.
Rob Elkington, Robyn Ruttenberg-Rozen, Nadia Worthington, “The use of META (virtual simulations) in Canadian junior military leadership development,” Journal of Leadership Education, first published 1 April 2024.
This paper aims to explore virtual simulations, merging artificial intelligence with real-world simulations, supporting Canadian armed forces (CAF) junior military leaders (JMLs) leadership development. Our research questions are: (1) How do virtual simulations support CAF junior military leadership development within a globalized and complex environment in the 21st century? (2) Could virtual simulations support a leadership culture change through efficacious “soft skills” training? In this paper, we explore the efficacy of virtual simulations for enhancing or developing leadership in JMLs in the CAF through a four-day pilot project with twenty JMLs (n = 20).
George Ellison and Andrew Shepherd, “Might Wargaming be Another Instance Where “Anything You Can Do, AI Can Do Better”?,” Preprints.org, 17 January 2024.
This article offers a pragmatic ‘epistemology of wargaming’ which views wargames as immersive ‘thought experiments’ in which the human players involved use their experiential, empirical, and theoretical knowledge – together with whatever cognitive models they are able to deploy, or develop anew – to generate a conceptual, operational understanding of the adversarial scenario in which they are immersed; and exploit this understanding to craft tactical decisions designed to optimise the likelihood they will achieve their strategic objectives. From this perspective, contemporary interest in the use of ‘AI’-enabled tools to augment the validity of wargaming outputs – where these outputs constitute the decisions players make and the insights such decisions reveal – might most purposefully focus on: the design and implementation of wargames (to strengthen the architecture these provide to support immersive decision-making); and the analysis of players’ decisions (to better understand the cognitive models these involve and reflect). While the focus we suggest might disappoint those keen to replace human players with (semi-) autonomous decision-making machines, as long as the principal objectives of wargaming are to assess and enhance the decision-making capabilities of human players and human personnel, ‘AI’-enabled applications can only ever play a supporting role (albeit a potentially invaluable one) in the design, presentation, implementation, and analysis of wargames. As Irving Berlin1 might have it: ‘AI’ might soon be able to do most things better than us, but it can never replace humans when only a human will do.
Sajjad Farhang and Hamid Arvand, “Application of artificial intelligence in wargaming to improve cognitive performance in combined naval battles,” Research Quarterly in Military Management 23, 4 (2024).
Background: The lack of power to imagine, understand and learn ethical behavior cannot be compensated by organizational statements or traditional training. Meanwhile, digital simulation technologies such as virtual reality can help to learn moral behavior by providing a platform for imagining the results of actions in a simulated environment and strengthening people’s imagination and being able to see things from the perspective of others.
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of using artificial intelligence in the war game on the cognitive performance of commanders and warriors in future naval battles.
Research method: The current research is exploratory in terms of qualitative methodology and meta-combination. The statistical population of the research consists of authentic qualitative studies published in the field of application of digital simulation technologies (with a focus on virtual reality and augmented reality) in social cognitive learning until 1401.
Findings: five components of unconscious indoctrination, the feeling of pervasive presence in the learning environment, increasing the cognitive processing capacity of abstract and non-experiential concepts, the ability to deeply understand the subject in the simulation environment, strengthening the motivation to learn, improving creativity in relation to the learning topic as the effect of the use of digital simulation technology Based on social cognitive learning, ethical behavior was identified in defense organizations.
Conclusion: digital simulation technologies will be able to create a significant change in social cognitive learning and the development of moral behavior in military organizations by providing the possibility.
Michael Fowler, “Wargames as Pedagogical Tools: Using Wargames for Higher Education,” Journal of Political Science Education, first published online 10 May 2024.
Wargames and crisis simulations can be useful pedagogical tools when deliberately used. This paper explores the spectrum of pedagogical objectives; what use are wargames for learning? What types of objectives can they explore? How do you align the learning objectives with the right type of game? The paper leverages Bloom’s Taxonomy of learning as a method to guide game selection according to the desired classroom learning objective. For each type of game, the paper identifies lessons from higher education classroom use that others should consider before applying their own wargame.
SK Gadeock and Saikat K Bose, Optimisation of Professional Wargaming with Board and Tabletop Wargames which really are Qualitative Agent-based Models, United Service Institution of India Occasional Paper (2024).
Warfare is a complex adaptive system that shows aggregate behaviour, adaptation, and behaviour by anticipation. A few pioneering initiatives to represent warfare with [Agent-Based Models], acknowledged as best able to mimic behaviour of such systems, that have been made are experimental, highly detailed, and mathematical, and focus on short and homogenous battles only. This paper argues that recreational wargames, such as boardgames and miniature-based games, are qualitative agent-based models whose techniques and devices have immense scope for creating credible and realistic games for professional military exploitation if adapted suitably.
Aggie Hirst, Politics of Play: Wargaming with the UK Military (Oxford University Press, 2024).
Politics of Play: Wargaming with the US Military is the first book in international relations to examine the use of wargames in the world’s most powerful fighting forces. Since 2014, a wargaming renaissance has been under way in which a small but committed wargames community of practice has been empowered to proliferate their craft across the military’s strategic planning, professional education, and training regimes. Drawing in detail upon one hundred hours of interviews conducted at US military wargames and schoolhouses, Politics of Playexamines the military’s use of games for recruitment, training, education, and research. It argues that by promoting a non-reflexive immersive state and cultivating a drive toward victory conditions, wargaming has both reality-producing and subject-producing properties. In addition, grounded in the thought of Jacques Derrida, it offers a new theorization of play—“deconstructive play”—as a practical means by which the politics and power relations at work in wargames might be identified and challenged. The book shows that, far from games and play being one and the same, games sit in tension with play insofar as games are systems or structures that arrest and direct play, often imposed from outside, while play involves the making and breaking of such rules by players themselves. Combining original empirical analysis with a new theory of play, Politics of Play offers a critical analysis of the use of wargaming to produce soldiers in the digital age.
Jan Hodicky, “M&S to support wargaming for concept development: Multi-domain operations in urban environment use case,” NMSG Symposium ‘Simulation: Going Beyond the Limitations of the Real World’ STO-MP-MSG-207 (2023).
Development of a concept for Multi Domain Operations in the Urban Environment (MDO in UE) required validation effort to ensure that identified capabilities and the concept principles are pertinent to the future operating environment. In 2023 there was an ACT wargaming event bringing unique mixture of qualitative and quantitative assessment while seeking for a synergy between manual wargame and Modelling and Simulation (M&S).
The MDO in UE concept is designed at the operational level; therefore, it requires inclusion of tactical activities in all five military domains while aggregating effects at operational level. The simulation framework was composed of a constructive simulation, an analytical tool harvesting M&S generated data, environment.
The paper commences with the Use Case description and M&S requirements. In later part, based on the design of M&S support to wargame and wargaming execution, the results of the validation event are portrayed. The last part describes lessons identified when looking for WG and M&S synergy in Concept Development arena.
Daniel P. Hogan and Andrea Brennen, “Open-Ended Wargames with Large Language Models,” arXiv preprint, 17 April 2024.
Wargames are a powerful tool for understanding and rehearsing real-world decision making. Automated play of wargames using artificial intelligence (AI) enables possibilities beyond those of human-conducted games, such as playing the game many times over to see a range of possible outcomes. There are two categories of wargames: quantitative games, with discrete types of moves, and qualitative games, which revolve around open-ended responses. Historically, automation efforts have focused on quantitative games, but large language models (LLMs) make it possible to automate qualitative wargames. We introduce “Snow Globe,” an LLM-powered multi-agent system for playing qualitative wargames. With Snow Globe, every stage of a text-based qualitative wargame from scenario preparation to post-game analysis can be optionally carried out by AI, humans, or a combination thereof. We describe its software architecture conceptually and release an open-source implementation alongside this publication. As case studies, we simulate a tabletop exercise about an AI incident response and a political wargame about a geopolitical crisis. We discuss potential applications of the approach and how it fits into the broader wargaming ecosystem.
Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, and Sam Whitt, “How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study,” Journal of Peace Research, first published 19 February 2024.
Cyber operations ranging from deception and espionage to disruption and high-end degradation have become a central feature of modern statecraft in the digital age, yet we lack a clear understanding of how decision-makers employ and respond to cyber operations in times of crisis. Our research provides theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for understanding how decision-makers react to cyber triggers and utilize cyber responses during crises. Specifically, we argue that the availability of cyber response creates off-ramps for non-escalatory engagement. Based on experimental wargames involving rival states with power parity in militarized disputes and randomized cyber triggers and response options, we find the availability of cyber response options reduces escalatory behavior via a substitution mechanism. In the absence of cyber response options, however, participants pursue more conventional, escalatory actions, regardless of the triggering mechanism. Our findings underscore how enhancing the availability of cyber response options might reduce strategic escalation risks and offer the space to bargain during periods of conflict.
Robert Kitchen, “Red Dragon Rising? Insights from a decade of China conflict studies and wargames,” CIMSEC, 24 February 2024.
China and the United States see each other as the pacing challenge,1 with Taiwan the obvious potential flashpoint. Correspondingly, different governments and think tanks repeatedly featured the Taiwan conflict in wargames. However, results from these studies varied significantly, ranging from swift Taiwanese capitulation and pyrrhic United States victories to bloody Chinese failures. This review compares several studies, explaining differences in the objectives, outcomes, and implications. As such, it is the first review to collate findings from a broad sample of wargames held over eight years between 2016 and 2023. It identifies a clear, regressive trend in the United States and Taiwanese chances of victory over the period and crucial factors influencing the outcomes for the People’s Liberation Army, the Republic of China, the United States, and allied forces. It concludes with recommendations for future wargame iterations.
Max Lamparth, Anthony Corso, Jacob Ganz, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Jacquelyn Schneider, Harold Trinkunas, “Human vs. Machine: Language Models and Wargames,” arXiv preprint, 6 March 2024.
Wargames have a long history in the development of military strategy and the response of nations to threats or attacks. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) promises better decision-making and increased military effectiveness. However, there is still debate about how AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), behave as compared to humans. To this end, we use a wargame experiment with 107 national security expert human players designed to look at crisis escalation in a fictional US-China scenario and compare human players to LLM-simulated responses. We find considerable agreement in the LLM and human responses but also significant quantitative and qualitative differences between simulated and human players in the wargame, motivating caution to policymakers before handing over autonomy or following AI-based strategy recommendations.
Ioanna K. Lekea, George K. Lekeas, and Pavlos Topalnakos, “Exploring Enhanced Military Ethics and Legal Compliance through Automated Insights: An Experiment on Military Decision-making in Extremis,” Conatus – Journal of Philosophy 8, 2 (2023).
Numerous factors are known to impact human decision-making: fatigue, stress, fear, sleep deprivation, organizational culture, ethics, and even substances consumed, among others. Making decisions within the context of a military operation poses exceptional challenges. Time constraints are consistently tight, and military personnel often contend with physical and mental exhaustion, along with substantial stress and fear. Our proactive strategies for addressing these hurdles predominantly revolve around educating military personnel, incorporating both theoretical training and immersive simulations that may include different types of war games, role playing and VR applications that mimic real-world challenges. However, can we extend our efforts further to ensure that military personnel surmount difficulties and consistently make morally and legally sound decisions amidst exceptional situations? Moreover, where does trust lie: in the insights of a comrade, a commanding officer, or the guidance provided by sophisticated algorithms and Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems? Could AI potentially outperform human guidance when it comes to elevating the ethical and legal discernment of military personnel amid the intensity of combat situations?
Rufei Ma, Shousheng Liu, Zeshui Xu, Yan Zhang & Yan Ni, “Research on fuzzy dynamic route choice model and algorithm of wargame,” International Journal of Machine Learning and Cybernetics , first published 12 February 2024.
This paper aims at automatic route choice in wargame deduction, that is, using computer algorithms to mimic the route choice of human players. Route choice is the process by which a player of a game chooses the optimal route from a set of candidate routes. Essentially, it can be viewed as a multi-attribute decision making problem. However, due to the uncertain and dynamic decision making environment in wargaming, the existing decision making theory and methods face some challenges in addressing such problems. We summarize these challenges in two aspects. On the one hand, from a psychological point of view, the process of route choice by a human player is a dynamic decision making process. However, most of the multi-attribute decision making methods widely used today were developed under static conditions and do not accurately describe the decision making behaviors of individuals in dynamic and real-world settings. On the other hand, in the real dynamic decision making environment of wargaming, there is a large amount of ambiguous and uncertain information. How to imitate human thinking to quantify the information is crucial for making scientific decisions and for automating decision making. Based on the above two aspects of the analysis, in this paper, we first construct a fuzzy dynamic route choice model of wargame. The model simulates the decision making process of humans from two stages of “information preprocessing” and “information processing”. Then we propose a fuzzy dynamic route choice algorithm of wargame. Furthermore, the model is applied to a practical case of route choice of wargame, and the effectiveness and advantages of the model are illustrated through a comparative analysis. Finally, the model is further quantitated and analyzed in combination with the actual case, and the approximation of the model to human decision making psychology is illustrated from both a simulation and a mathematical justification perspective. These results demonstrate that the proposed model can not only handle a large amount of fuzzy and uncertain information, but also simulate the decision making psychology of wargame players. This research result is expected to provide a new effective method for automatic route choice in wargame simulations.
Zackery Joseph Milder, White Cell Support Application for EXPO OPS Tactical Wargame White Cell Support Application for EXPO OPS Tactical Wargame System, MA thsis, Lindenwood University, May 2024.
The purpose of this project was to create a support application for a tabletop wargame currently used for training and scenario simulation by the United States Marine Corps. The EXPO OPS Companion is meant to enhance the capabilities of the White Cell/table director, the unbiased third party responsible for running adjudication for the EXPO OPS Tactical Wargames System. EXPO OPS TWS is “…a table top wargame covering contemporary and future conflict at the platoon, company and battalion level. It is a wargame toolkit that enables wargaming
scenarios in the 2020 to 2030 timeframe. The design centers on plans and decisions at the low tactical level with an emphasis on combined arms. A Marine Expeditionary Unit and Brigade is the centerpiece of the design.” (EXPO OPS TWS Rules V1, 2022). This project aimed to enhance the White Cell’s capabilities through the development of a proof-of-concept application which will: Calculate engagement results; Track units’ resources; Provide quick access to EXPO OPS rule set and guidance; Be portable and low maintenance; Have a user-friendly interface. The application successfully calculated engagement results based on the ruleset provided in the EXPO OPS Tactical Wargame System rule book and in conjunction with input from the faculty advisors. This enabled the White Cell to focus on other aspects outside of calculating engagement results. The application also tracked individual units’ current force size, ammo, morale and any other attribute deemed important; this allowed for more complex scenarios to
unfold while relieving the White Cell or players from having to manually track this information. Additionally, the application has a quick reference guide to the EXPO OPS rule book and the potential for quick access to Marine Corps Publications, especially those on tactics. The application was designed to be self-contained with an easy-to-understand graphical interface, allowing for seamless use for new users.
Wargaming is extremely vital to training the next generation of military officers. One of the main issues of pure virtual wargaming, or computer simulations, is that it is bound by the limits of the program it operates in. One of the limits of pure tabletop wargaming is it can become overly burdensome to track all the individual modifiers that might go into an engagement. This proof-of-concept application is an attempt at creating a hybrid solution to bring the best of both worlds. This application aims to create a limitless wargame, bound only by the imagination and creativity of those executing it and backed with the capability to track and analyze information quickly and reliably.
Sourena Naghikhani, Beyond the Box: A Comprehensive Market Research of The Board Game Industry, Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation thesis, OCAD University, 2024.
The board game industry is witnessing an unprecedented era of growth, projected to double from
$13.06 billion in 2023 to $26.04 billion by 2030, In other words, We are in a golden age of board
games. Amidst this expansion, our research provides an extensive overview and critical
examination of the industry’s progression and potential, emphasizing the need for sustainable and
inclusive practices to navigate future growth.
This comprehensive study provides a detailed overview of the historical progression and current
dynamics of the board game industry. We explore the industry’s evolution from ancient games to
today’s diverse market, highlighting significant developments such as the rise of mass-market
games in 1935, the birth of role-playing games in 1974, and the digital transformation of board
gaming. Utilizing a meticulous research design that includes diverse data collection methods and
rigorous analysis, this paper examines market trends, value, revenue, and segmentation by game
type, region, sales channel, and user demographics.
The study presents a thorough market overview, revealing the industry’s competitive landscape
and identifying leading companies like Hasbro, Asmodee, and others. Market dynamics are
dissected to unearth driving factors such as the expansion of e-commerce, the upsurge in leisure
time, and innovations in game design. Trends like the rise in adult gaming, influence of social
media, and the emergence of hybrid gaming models reflect the industry’s adaptability.
Additionally, we address the restraints challenging the industry, including competition from digital
gaming, marketing hurdles, and economic barriers. The research delves into the value chain of
board games, from idea development and playtesting to marketing and promotion,
providing key insights into each stage. Consumer insights are gathered to understand leisure
preferences, engagement opportunities, and spending patterns, with a focus on physical versus
digital gaming inclinations.
Overall, the research encapsulates the multifaceted nature of the board game industry, offering a
valuable resource for stakeholders to navigate its complexities and leverage growth opportunities
in an ever-evolving landscape.
Marcello Passarelli, Michele Masini , Tommaso Francesco Piccinno, and Alessandro Rizzi, “Don’t Flip the Table Yet: A Framework for the Analysis of Visual and Cognitive Ergonomics in Board Games,” Games and Culture, first published online 30 April 2024.
Board games provide immersive and enjoyable experiences for players, but they can also pose usability challenges. This article presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing board game design, focusing on identifying the elements that make play inadvertently difficult or fatiguing. The proposed framework analyses board games as a user interface between the players and the board game mechanics, thereby focusing on the presentation aspects without altering the underlying rules. The intent is to preserve the deliberate design challenges that enhance gameplay while pinpointing the elements that affect the game experience negatively. We employ a methodology that begins with the observation of players’ behavioral cues to infer internal states such as cognitive or visual fatigue. These inferred states serve as a basis to identify problematic features in the game components or presentation. We illustrate the framework through a series of case studies, providing practical examples of the analysis process through an idiographic approach.
Edoardo Polimeno, Christian Catalano, Michele Scalera, and Marco Biagini, “Hobby wargames: a preliminary survey,” Multimedia Tools and Applications, first published online 28 May 2024.
Wargames are strategy games in which two or more players, by taking on the roles of opposing sides, make decisions that shape the course of historical or imaginary military events. Striking a balance between realism and playability, through the implementation of engaging and familiar game mechanics, is a critical aspect of designing successful wargames and conveying to the players their objectives. However, a lack of evaluation and critique of serious wargames, targeted primarily for training and analysis purposes, limits their progress compared to their hobby counterparts, mainly designed for entertainment. Hybridization, integrating traditional board game elements with digital technology, is also emphasized for its role in generating innovative experiences. Therefore, this study serves as an initial survey into the current trends of hobby Wargaming, focusing on prevalent game mechanics, their design, the distinctions between them, and their potential exploration in a hybrid context. We analyzed 30 wargames using BoardGameGeek database as the primary source and identified 56 different game mechanics, with notable heterogeneity among the games. Findings revealed common design patterns, such as competitive gameplay, fixed turn order, utilization of cards and dice, and the inclusion of area majority mechanisms. With this study we strive to provide valuable insights into traditional wargame design and propose opportunities in its digitalization, such as time and information flow modelling or the use of inhuman opponents, with the aim to enhance the overall understanding of this genre.
Larry B. Rainey, ed., Space System Architecture Analysis and Wargaming (CRC Press, 2024).
Space System Architecture Analysis and Wargaming presents a single-source reference for two major topics that are not currently covered in literature related to subdisciplines of astronautics. It provides modeling and simulation tools to architect space systems and analysis, which include detailed discussions of various simulation tools: STK, SEAS, SOAP, AFSIM, EADSIM, and STORM.
Working through the types of analysis that can be performed with each toolkit, the book focuses on designing and evaluating alternative space systems and system of systems to meet mission requirements. It also addresses the field of space wargaming with two tools: Space Warfare Analysis Tool/Space Attack Warning and Space and Information Analysis Model.
The book is intended for professionals working in the fields of aerospace engineering, astronautical engineering, space systems engineering, and space wargaming. It will also interest graduate students who are studying spacecraft systems and space architecture.
Amanda Rosen and Lisa Kerr, “Wargaming for Learning: How Educational Gaming Supports Student Learning and Perspectives,” Journal of Political Science Education, 20, 2 (2024).
To what extent does educational gaming add value to more traditional instructional models in learning core concepts of national security and warfighting? This paper presents the results from a quasi-experimental, cross-sectional, and longitudinal study of students taking two standardized courses in the Joint Military Operations department at the US Naval War College. Split into wargaming and non-wargaming sections by instructor preference, subject learning is measured through self-reported and objective measures at three points: prior to the start of the content block on “Operational Art”; after the case study of the WW2 battle of Leyte Gulf but prior to any wargaming; and for subjects in wargaming course sections, after participating in the Leyte Gulf scenario of the “War at Sea” wargame. The results support the hypotheses that wargaming increases learning and alter student preferences in favor of learning through gaming but fail to find evidence that students recognize the value of the debriefing phase of educational gaming. This article adds to existing studies by focusing on an understudied practitioner population—graduate-level career military officers at a professional military education (PME) institution—and mitigating several of the methodological challenges facing many scholarly projects in the study of educational gaming in political science.
Bonnie Rushing, “Analysis of Media Influence on Military Decision-Making,” Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security, ICCWS 2024.
Information warfare challenges, including the “CNN Effect,” are increasing in quantity and complexity as the internet saturates modern life. Media communications, reliable or not, are constantly injected into American life, affecting opinions, decision-making, and actions—which may result in terrifying and permanent consequences when the media influences military members and government leaders.This research focuses on the immersive learning environment—an engaging, simulation-based educational experience with realistic conflict scenarios where students apply lesson objectives through hands-on activities. Instructors conduct immersive learning in the US Air Force Academy’s (USAFA) Multi-Domain Laboratory. Traditionally, students were taught military strategy in a classroom where they engaged in wargaming by rolling dice using a board game. Now, the Military & Strategic Studies (MSS) Department uses hands-on, real-time wargaming with unique hardware and software to teach future leaders how to apply classroom concepts using experiential learning. Wargames are critical for meeting the priorities of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—specifically, preparing leaders to conduct joint operations in all domains by integrating experiential learning. The guidance explains that “curricula should leverage live, virtual, constructive, and gaming methodologies with wargames… to develop deeper insight and ingenuity.” The wargame with media provides external influences like news and information from various sources, which may influence students’ decision-making process, resulting in “The CNN Effect.” “The CNN Effect” is a short-hand way to explain how news reports drive government leaders’ responses, including military decision-making. This project builds upon existing research uniquely because this study examines decision-making from multiple leaders based on the same simulated media in USAFA’s immersive learning environment. This research uses mixed methods analysis to explore how students act based on the wargame media inputs and compare course outcome differences after receiving enhanced Information Operations education or when exposed to different quantities of broadcasts. The Information Warfare (news literacy) module enhances education on the media’s influence on decision-making and trust for students. Students learned to identify and research information sources, analyze biases, opinion versus fact-based reporting, and compare news reports from various outlets.
Micael da Silva e Sousa, Serious Planning Games, PhD thesis, Universidade de Coimbra, March 2023.
There seems to exist a crisis in participation, not that citizens do not wish to participate in collective and public affairs. But in contemporary societies, there is a sense of urgency and too many things competing for the time and attention of the individuals. Citizens demand higher participation levels and effectiveness, and that participation results are consequent. Planning practitioners are struggling to find new methods to address these demands. Planners are also exploring new data collection methods to improve their planning practices. Collaborative planning approaches have been tested, at least in the past three decades, requiring new methods to increase participation levels and propose processes where the participants can generate effective results. Participation without consequent outcomes is a problem that planners, politicians and other decision-makers must account for. Serious games have been used as support tools for these planning approaches to foster participation and to collect data that would be difficult to obtain by other means.The present thesis explores how modern board games can support serious games for collaborative urban and spatial planning and deal with urban complexity. First, it tries to find the state of the art of games used in planning, identifying the associated literature. Then it also explores the state of the art of modern boardgames related to city and territory building, going deep into the game elements like the game mechanisms and their representations. Then several practical case studies show the development process and results of several analogue serious games, including a digital adaptation. The focus on analogue games results from the demand for easy and inexpensive methods to deliver serious games. Analogue games are the simplest and most probable starting points for planners wishing to use games as tools for planning approaches. Also, modern board games are a worldwide trend that engages a continuously growing number of gamers each year, and among these games, many are about urban simulations or real cities. The thesis explore several serious game application cases for planning and identifies their strengths and limitations. Proposes a guide of game mechanisms to select and combine to build analogue serious games. By exploring the development process of several original analogue serious games for urban planning, for different case studies, it shows the challenges, pitfalls, and results of practical implementations with reals users (participants) for real planning problems. Among those, the UrbSecusity (Urbact) case is about a participatory planning process to improve the urban safety and security of the historical city centre of Leiria (Portugal). In the case of the Municipality of Marinha Grande (Portugal), a collaborative analogue game was compared to an optimization software to plan the elementary network of schools. The comparison revealed how human interaction brings other dimensions not considered in the model. These two cases were only possible because other serious game approaches were tested before with students and other planning experts, testing game mechanisms, human interactions, and dealing with game outcomes.Developing the games required considerable game design knowledge and facilitation skills, which can be challenging for planners wishing to explore game-based planning.
Yusheng Sun; Yuxiang Sun; Jiahui Yu; Yuanbai Li; and Xianzhong Zhou, “Predicting Wargame Outcomes and Evaluating Player Performance from an Integrated Strategic and Operational Perspective,” IEEE Transactions on Games, 23 February 2024.
Wargame has emerged as a preferred instrument for simulating combat decision-making. This paper employs machine learning methodologies to predict the outcome of wargame matches. Initially, we conducted data preprocessing on 335 wargame match replays, extracting and generating features from both macro and micro perspectives, thereby capturing player strategies and operational nuances. This meticulous process culminated in the formation of a comprehensive player behavioral feature dataset. Subsequently, we harnessed six distinct machine learning models to prognosticate match results in the domain of wargaming using this dataset, achieving a peak prediction accuracy of 96.11%. The primary emphasis lies in the identification of prevalent determinants contributing to player triumphs in wargaming. To this end, we conducted an attribution analysis to ascertain the significance of diverse macro and micro features. Guided by the importance of these features, we propose a method for evaluating player performance. This methodology can be instrumental in scrutinizing disparate player wargaming styles, dissecting customary strategic behaviors that lead to player victories, and assisting wargame designers in crafting AI agents capable of adapting to a spectrum of human player behaviors. Consequently, this study offers substantial insights for the advancement of research in the realm of human-AI hybrid gameplay.
Alexis von Sydow, Is a conflict over Taiwan drawing near? A review of available forecasts and scenarios, Swedish National China Center Brief (2024).
This report reviews forecasts of and scenarios for a conflict over Taiwan undertaken in the period 2013–2023. Forecasts support the impression that the risk of war has increased. A significant proportion of experts believe that some type of use of force by China (not necessarily an invasion) against Taiwan is likely to occur within the next ten years. Nonetheless, forecasters still rate the overall risk of war as low.
Ahmed Tlili, Michael Agyemang Adarkwah, Soheil Salha, Ronghuai Huang, “How environmental perception affects players’ in-game behaviors? Towards developing games in compliance with sustainable development goals,” Entertainment Computing 50 (May 2024).
Little is known about how players’ environmental perceptions affect their in-game environmental behaviors. This study analyzes the in-game behaviors data of Nintendo’s Animal Crossing: New Horizons (ACNH) players. Players’ environmental perceptions impact their in-game behaviors; however, this is not always true. Players tend to also behave within the game against their beliefs just to level-up in the game. This study endeavours to contribute to developing games in compliance with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Aline Werro, Christian Nitzl, and Uwe M. Borghoff, “On the Role of Intelligence and Business Wargaming in Developing Foresight,” arXiv preprint, 11 May 2024.
Business wargaming is a central tool for developing sustain- ing strategies. It transfers the benefits of traditional wargaming to the business environment. However, building wargames that support the pro- cess of decision-making for strategy require respective intelligence. This paper investigates the role of intelligence in the process of developing strategic foresight. The focus is on how intelligence is developed and how it relates to business wargaming. The so-called intelligence cycle is the basis and reference of our investigation.
The conceptual part of the paper combines the theoretical background from military, business as well as serious gaming. To elaborate on some of the lessons learned, we examine specific business wargames both drawn from the literature and conducted by us at the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies (CISS). It is shown that business wargaming can make a significant contribution to the transformation of data to intelligence by supporting the intelligence cycle in two crucial phases. Furthermore, it brings together business intelligence (BI) and competitive intelligence (CI) and it bridges the gap to a company’s strategy by either testing or developing a new strategy. We were also able to confirm this finding based on the business wargame we conducted at a major semiconductor manufacturer.
Jorit Wintjes, “‘Sharp like cut iron’: Albrecht von Stosch and the beginning of naval wargaming in the German navy,” The Mariner’s Mirror 110, 1 (2024).
The Seekriegsspiel, a naval version of the Prussian Kriegsspiel, was officially introduced to the German navy in 1876 by the then chief of the German admiralty, Albrecht von Stosch. Intended as an instrument to professionalize the navy’s officers’ corps, it was used not only as an educational but also an analytical instrument; right up to the outbreak of First World War Kriegsspiele were used to evaluate war plans. The 1876 Seekriegsspiel included both a strategic and a tactical element, with the former being considered at the time to be of more value than the latter. In 1879, Philip Colomb RN published a tactical naval wargame that soon found an interested audience among German officers, and by 1880 a German translation produced by a somewhat colourful Austro-Hungarian officer was in wide circulation. The paper provides a brief overview over the developmental history of the Seekriegsspiel and discusses its differences to the Kriegsspiel used by the army.
Liu Wu, “Data analysis of tactical wargaming based on data mining,” Journal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering, 24, 1 (2024).
In order to effectively solve the problem of acquiring knowledge from tactical wargaming data, an overall analysis framework is designed based on the standard process of data mining. The data is analyzed from four aspects: time, space, maneuver path and multi-operator behavior correlation. The behavioral characteristics of single operators at different stages and the spatial distribution of key points such as shooting points, hit points and hidden points, and the association rules of movement, shooting, and occupation between multiple operators are obtained. This will provide commanders with experience and knowledge, help them to quickly accumulate combat experience, and provide behavior rules and action modes for the development of wargaming AI, effectively improving its intelligent level.
Yadong Zhang, Shaoguang Mao, Tao Ge, Xun Wang, Adrian de Wynter
Yan Xia, Wenshan Wu, Ting Song, Man Lan, and Furu Wei, “LLM as a Mastermind: A Survey of Strategic Reasoning with Large Language Models,” arXiv preprint, 1 April 2024.
This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the current status and opportunities for Large Language Models (LLMs) in strategic reasoning, a sophisticated form of reasoning that necessitates understanding and predicting adversary actions in multi-agent settings while adjusting strategies accordingly. Strategic reasoning is distinguished by its focus on the dynamic and uncertain nature of interactions among multi-agents, where comprehending the environment and anticipating the behavior of others is crucial. We explore the scopes, applications, methodologies, and evaluation metrics related to strategic reasoning with LLMs, highlighting the burgeoning development in this area and the interdisciplinary approaches enhancing their decision-making performance. It aims to systematize and clarify the scattered literature on this subject, providing a systematic review that underscores the importance of strategic reasoning as a critical cognitive capability and offers insights into future research directions and potential improvements.
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