Conflict simulation, peacebuilding, and development

Tag Archives: Tel Aviv University

more on the Brookings Iran simulation

Two quick links regarding the Brookings Institutions December 2009 simulation of an Israeli strike on Iran:

*The milgeek in me is a little dubious about feasibility of the military scenario (“using a refueling base hastily set up in the Saudi Arabian desert without Saudi knowledge”) —it is one thing to refuel C-130s and helicopters in the desert as the Americans attempted in Operation Eagle Claw in 1980 (which, of course, went rather badly)… it is quite another thing with large numbers of modern high-performance strike aircraft in a country with quite good AWACS radar coverage. Still the simulation was largely about the politics, so it doesn’t much matter.

another Iran simulation

Iran seems to be all the rage for high-profile crisis simulations these days–first the simulation at Harvard (blogged about below), and now news of a similar simulation at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. According to a Reuters report published in the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz:

Think-tank: U.S. will sideline Israel in Iran nuclear dispute

By Reuters

Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year, according to a closed-door wargame at Israel’s top strategic think-tank.

Not even a warning shot by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the simulation featured an undeclared Israeli commando raid on Iran’s Arak heavy water plant – would shake U.S. President Barack Obamas’s insistence on dialogue.

Israel’s arch-foe, meanwhile, will likely keep enriching uranium, perhaps even winning the grudging assent of the West.

“The Iranians came out feeling better than the Americans, as they were simply more determined to stick to their objectives,” said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser who played Netanyahu in the Nov. 1 wargame at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, a former chief of Israel’s military intelligence who played Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, envisaged Tehran staying on its nuclear track “unless facing a threat to the survival of the regime”.

“That just wasn’t forthcoming from the Americans or their coalition,” Zeevi-Farkash said, adding that “Obama” should have buttressed negotiations by boosting the U.S. naval deployment in the Gulf or persuading India to slash its business ties to Iran.

According to Zeevi-Farkash, Iran would be unlikely to launch a nuclear attack on Israel, preferring to use such weaponry to protect against invasion and wield regional clout. As such, a preemptive Israeli strike could spur Iran to get the bomb.

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