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I’d like to offer my 2cents on the subject, based on work that has been done in Italy and a few other countries.
The main theme we have to keep in mind is that “weaponized” social media works only where there already is a suitable substrate where it can stick to. It doesn’t work regardless of this.
In other words, the use of social media to influence public opinion doesn’t create problems per se, it just exploits existing ones by increasing the level of polarization. This brings us to the two main themes:
1-The target is polarizing societies (not necessarily make you vote “x” or “y”, which may be a consequence but not necessarily the original aim), which in turn divides them in non-talking parts. People shout at each other, exchange slogans, don’t discuss the merit of things, don’t come up with shared solutions. I dismiss your claims, you dismiss mine, so everything I present to you is dismissed as false, fake (regardless of whether it really is or not), biased etc… and viceversa.
2-The above means that any “counter” strategies don’t work in the social media field and that once the social media offensive starts that’s likely already a bit late to start a counter-strategy. That’s the most difficult realization but also the most vital. If 50%+ of Italian people think that migration flows are an unsustainable invasion, then no fact-checking work or analysis will convince them that it isn’t so, and this is because the polarization built above either makes me not believe your fact-checking or tell you “yes, but the problems remain and you’re not solving them just by throwing numbers at me”.
We’re talking about problems that have been building up for years (possibly more in some cases) and that are reaching boiling point. In this scenario, public opinion becomes the most receptive to polarizing use of social media – it tells them what they want to hear based on real problems they have.
Problems are exaggerated out of proportions, yes, but they are still real ones, and some counter social media campaigns won’t change that.
So the real counter strategy is dealing with those problems BEFORE the storm. If Russia is able to use social media campaign to polarize Italian society regarding migration and the EU, it’s also because migration in Italy was dealt with unsatisfactorily at the practical level (scarce number of centres for identification, laws unfit for the challenge, lack of overall coordination in the early years leading to some critical situation etc…). If in the Baltics Russia propaganda is directed at the Russian-speaking people there, we should also look at the grievances that are caused by those same Baltic governments (see Anja Van Der Hurst’s talk at Connections UK 2017). If Brexit and Trump election was influenced by social media use, then we can see where the former governments and establishment failed to tackle several issues that were then used by demagogues. Long-term economic issues, etc… built the support or destroyed it in over years, not just in the last few months. The last few months is where we saw its effects play out.
We’re not talking about “right” or “wrong”. We’re talking about the fact that real problems create the substrate where use of social media becomes effective. Once it’s done, you can’t simply get back thanks to social media campaigns – you risk of just running after them, which actually strengthens their effect, because denial reinforces the “you don’t understand me and my problems” mentality.
So regarding the game, if you’re tackling social media support for great issues, you shouldn’t try to represent short-term swings from positive to negative. Because they don’t happen. You should consider a longer time-frame. Keep in mind positive policies don’t give immediate effects, but only over time, while negative criticism is fast to spread and take root.
If, instead, you’re looking short-term at social media regarding crises (like a war, or a diplomatic incident) you have to keep in mind there will be a “fixed” popular support or disdain (social media environment) built from past developments and situations and how they evolved, and limitare to see if you can do a good enough job to keep exiating critics (or external influencers) from flooding you with criticism or not. Just remember that once a certain crisis is passed, social media will just turn to the next criticism – you won’t get much “rest” even if you do well – and that’s because of that same social media environment built from previous years.
Also remember that getting up from criticism should be more difficult than getting down from support. Regaining respect is always harder than losing it, especially across the shouting social media.