Conflict simulation, peacebuilding, and development

Simulating crisis in North Africa

Amidst political and humanitarian crisis in and around Libya, the Heritage Foundation is trumpeting the lessons of a 2009 crisis simulation that it conducted based on a fictional natural disaster in Tunisia:

Harvard University’s Niall Ferguson recently criticized the Obama Administration for lacking foresight and planning over the events in Egypt. The point of his criticisms of the Administration—and, by extension, the European Union—was illustrated over a year ago in a Heritage Foundation “war game.”

In late 2009, Heritage invited security experts and Washington-based policymakers to “game” a fictional scenario of its own whereby Tunisia was hit with a major earthquake. Significant political and civil unrest followed, accompanied by large numbers of refugees flowing from Tunisia to Italy and Malta.

The exercise was intended to test how well NATO and the EU would respond to such crises, and it proved eerily predictive of current events in North Africa….

Apparently, the “eerily predictive” findings of the crisis simulation were the following:

  1. The European Union can be indecisive, disorganized, and disunited.
  2. The Heritage Foundation believes that “American leadership is still needed around the world.”

Both of them, you’ll agree, are shocking revelations indeed…

2 responses to “Simulating crisis in North Africa

  1. ELyssebeth 23/03/2011 at 10:03 am

    I’m glad this is in the ‘not so serious’ simulation news :-)
    But how does someone tell the Heritage Foundation that neither conclusions is healthy as a working assumption for the current situation?
    And what were the assumptions built into the sim that created these ‘results’ in the first place?

  2. Brant 15/03/2011 at 3:08 pm

    In other late-breaking news, gravity continues to hold people to the planet…

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